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wscsuperfan
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| 10/10/2007 10:14 AM |
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BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Missouri (5-0) at Oklahoma (5-1)
5:30 p.m. - FSN
Off to its best start since 1981, and looking to go 6-0 for the first time since 1973, Missouri is now on the national radar after a dominant 41-6 destruction of Nebraska last week. Unfortunately, few paid much attention, with the showdown in Columbia going on at the same time as LSU-Florida, Notre Dame-UCLA, Ohio State-Purdue, and Stanford-USC, but it was still the type of defining win that showed just how strong the team might really be. And now things are cranked up a few notches. In what might be a Big 12 title game preview, the Tigers are looking to beat Oklahoma in Norman for the first time since 1966. The Sooners overcame the loss to Colorado with a somewhat uneven performance in a 28-21 win over Texas, and while they're still high in the rankings, and within range of sneaking into the national title hunt again, they need this win in a big way. If they can pull this out, the schedule eases up in a big way, with Texas A&M coming to Norman, and the toughest road test left at Texas Tech. This is when Oklahoma has to start playing like a team that crushed and killed its way through the first five games. This is when Missouri has to show it's a true national title player. It should be a shootout, and it should be one of the most important games of the weekend.
Why Missouri might win
All of a sudden, the Oklahoma secondary can't seem to tackle and is having a rough time getting beaten deep. Everyone had to throw on OU early on, trying to come back after getting down big early, but Colt McCoy of Texas was able to put up big yards despite being under constant pressure all game long, and not getting much from his star receivers. Colorado was able to get the big passes in the clutch, and then there was Tulsa. While the Tigers and the Golden Hurricane don't play the same brand of offense, their overall styles aren't too far off. Paul Smith and the Tulsa attack lit up the OU secondary like a Christmas three, giving Mizzou a blueprint of how to keep things up-tempo, get the quarterback on the move, and get the receivers involved early. The Sooners aren't great when the momentum isn't going their way, but at home, when things start clicking......
Why Oklahoma might win
....the offense has been unbelievable. Some teams are just night-and-day better on their own turf, and while beating up Utah State and North Texas certainly isn't any big whoop, the destruction of Miami still counts. Missouri hasn't been steady at getting to the quarterback, and if Sam Bradford gets time, he's deadly. Like OU, Missouri has given up a ton of passing yards to teams in comeback mode, considering there hasn't been a who's who of passing teams on the schedule so far, giving up 265 yards per game through the air is still a concern.
Who to Watch
Last week was Chase Daniel's time to get in the Heisman race, throwing for a career-best 401 yards and two touchdowns against the Huskers, and this week it's time to exorcise the demons. In last year's 26-10 loss to Oklahoma, he ran well, but tried doing too much, with 75 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, and three interceptions with no touchdown passes. The Tiger offense is humming, with all the weapons getting an equal chance to shine, and it has to be Daniel who makes the right reads, the right plays, and gets everyone involved. This might be the first time all year long the Tigers will have to deal with real adversity, and it'll be up to its veteran star to keep everyone calm, keep the offense moving, and settle things down after the inevitable OU home runs.
What Will Happen
OU might be different at home, but it's been shaky over the last three weeks and isn't nearly as sharp as it probably should be. Missouri is the real deal. This is a balanced, dangerous offense that'll overcome at least two long OU touchdowns to pull off the stunning win thanks to two key turnovers and a big late drive from Daniel.
Latest Spread
Oklahoma is favored by 10.5 at home.
Prediction
Missouri 34, Oklahoma 31
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Texas (4-2) at Iowa State (1-5)
11:30 a.m. - FSN
There are different levels of down. There's down, like Texas, after losing at home to Kansas State, and then dropping a tough battle to Oklahoma to all but eliminate itself from the Big 12 race. And then there's Iowa State down, playing like one of the worst teams in America, and starting off the Big 12 season 0-2 by losing to Nebraska and Texas Tech by a combined score of 77 to 34. Cyclone head coach Gene Chizik has his program in rebuilding mode, and while things might be tough, he can quickly generate a buzz by beating the team he helped out over the last two years as defensive coordinator. Texas has never lost to Iowa State, going 6-0 all-time, with only one game decided by fewer than double digits. With Baylor and a down Nebraska coming up, this has to be when Texas gets healthy again. Anything less than a blowout will get the fan base buzzing for all the wrong reasons.
Why Texas might win
Iowa State is struggling to put points on the board. It managed 35 in the loss to Toledo and its horrible defense, and hasn't scored more than 17 against anyone else. Texas might be struggling, but it hasn't scored fewer than 21 so far. Defensively, the Cyclone secondary hasn't given up a ton of yards, but it's been picked on way too easily when teams make a committment to throwing the ball. Texas is throwing it well, even if it hasn't been all that efficient, and should be able to put up 300 yards if Colt McCoy gets time to work.
Why Iowa State might win
Who knows Texas better than Chizik? He recruited just about all the top defensive players, and he should be able to match coaching move for coaching move. Iowa State's big problem has been turnovers, but Texas has had just as many problems. If the Cyclones can win the mistake battle, and capitalize on every opportunity, Texas could implode. So far, the Longhorns haven't been able to come up with a crisp 60 minutes of football.
Who to Watch
Texas senior Limas Sweed was supposed to be in for an All-American caliber season, but an injured wrist, suffered just before the season started, was a problem as he caught just 19 passes for 306 yards and three touchdowns, with most of the production coming in the blowout win over Rice. Now he's out for the year, needing to undergo surgery. That means several receivers will have to pick up the slack, primarily Jordan Shipley and Billy Pittman, who was suspended for the first four games. Neither have made much of an impact so far, but they'll play huge roles, while Quan Cosby will be the likely number one target.
What Will Happen
Texas won't play well for yet another week, but it won't matter. Iowa State will keep it tight until the third quarter, and then the Longhorns will pull away with two good drives.
Latest Spread
Texas is favored on the road by 16 points.
Prediction
Texas 34, Iowa State 17
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Baylor (3-3) at Kansas (5-0)
11:30 a.m.
Kansas lost to Baylor last year in a 36-35 shootout, and since then has gone 8-1, starting out the season with an impressive 30-24 win at Kansas State last week making everyone sit up and finally take notice. Now the key will be to avoid a letdown, with road dates with Colorado and Texas A&M ahead. Baylor hasn't been good. The offense hasn't been consistent, and the defense, while not horrible, hasn't been able to pick up the slack. Any possible dream of a bowl season has to start with a win this week, as things don't get any easier over the final five games. If Kansas is the real deal, it wins this game by 20 without trying. If Baylor comes in hot and gets the passing game revved up, this could be the shocker of the Big 12 season.
Why Baylor might win
The Kansas secondary was the worst in America last season, and this year, things appear to be night-and-day different, ranking eighth in the nation in pass defense, and fifth in pass efficiency defense. Is it a mirage? The Jayhawks have played one team (Central Michigan) that's throwing it remotely well, and then it got Kansas State. The secondary picked off three passes against the Wildcats, but it also gave up 310 yards. Baylor's offense hasn't been consistent, but it has thrown for 400 yards or more in three games, including last week in the loss to Colorado. If KU is on a letdown after beating Kansas State, it could be in for a shock if the Bears are bombing away.
Why Kansas might win
Kansas might just keep the ball so long that Baylor won't be able to get in the game. The Bears are dead last in America in time of possession, holding onto the ball for just 25:54 per game, bottoming out against Texas A&M by losing the time battle 43:18 to 16:42. Kansas is converting 44% of its third down chances, with tremendous balance that should keep Baylor's defense guessing all game long. So far, KU isn't making any major screwups, and if it's able to take care of the ball, it should be able to win without a problem. It'll take a special set of circumstances for Baylor to win without winning the turnover battle by at least +2.
Who to Watch
Aqib Talib was an All-America caliber cornerback last year on an awful Jayhawk defense. This year, he's one of the nation's best dual threat playmakers, albeit in a limited role. He's a defensive back, not a receiver, but he has seven catches for 174 yards and four touchdowns so far, and has picked off a pass in each of the last three games. Baylor will throw it 60 times, and it won't be able to avoid Talib for the entire game.
What Will Happen
KU should be primed for a letdown, but it hasn't happened so far. Baylor isn't generating enough production from either side of the ball to win a game like this.
Latest Spread
Kansas is favored at home by 25 points.
Prediction
Kansas 51, Baylor 20
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Oklahoma State (3-3) at Nebraska (4-2)
11:30 a.m. - FSN PPV
There are coaches on the hot seat, coaches in lame duck status, and then there's Nebraska's head man Bill Callahan, who just needs a big win really, really bad. It's one thing to get blown out at home by USC (really, it's O.K.), it's another to need a missed last second field goal to get by Ball State, and it's a whole other issue to get destroyed 41-6 by Missouri in what was likely the key game of the Huskers' Big 12 season. Last year, Nebraska was on its way to a good season, starting off 5-1 before losing a tight battle against Texas, and then came the trip to Stillwater. The Cowboys won 41-29, and while it didn't keep Nebraska from winning the North, this year, a win would likely do that, and get the grumbling Big Red faithful into a lather. OSU has had an uneven season so far, and is still trying to figure out who and what it is. With three home games ahead, a win in Lincoln could kick off a nice run, just when Mike Gundy's team desperately needs it most.
Why Oklahoma State might win
So far, the Husker defense has been consistently awful against anyone who can run, and last week got its doors blown off by a Missouri team that might provide a glimpse of what's to come. OSU doesn't throw the ball like the Tigers, but it likes to use its quarterback a little bit like Mizzou uses Chase Daniel, and the running backs are far superior. The Husker defensive line has been shoved out of the way far too easily against the better teams, and this week, the Cowboys should be able to run at will. Expect 250 yards on the ground.
Why Nebraska might win
If ever the Husker passing game was going to step back and let it rip, this would be the week for it to happen. Forgetting the 646 yards allowed to the Texas Tech passing game to skew the stats, the 116th ranked pass defense has had major problems against everyone. When Texas A&M throws for 218 yards, there are problems. With nothing from the running games since ripping up Nevada for 413 yards and six touchdowns, the offense needs to start flowing through Sam Keller and the passing game. If the Huskers decide to start bombing away, OSU might not be able to stop it.
Who to Watch
And the Oklahoma State quarterback will be.....? Zac Robinson suffered a concussion in last week's loss to Texas A&M, and while he's expected to play this week, Bobby Reid will have to be at the ready, and it might open up a big can of worms once again. Reid completed six of nine passes for 72 yards in relief, and while the job is still Robinson's, Reid might be an interesting choice considering he threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for 61 yards, in last year's win over the Huskers.
What Will Happen
Which Oklahoma State team will show up? Will it be the one that ran wild on Texas Tech, or will it be the one that couldn't get any offense going against Troy and collapsed against Texas A&M? Which Nebraska will show up? The Huskers haven't been sharp over the past several weeks, and it's about to get pounded on by the Cowboy ground game in another rough loss.
Latest Spread
Nebraska is favored at home by 4 points.
Prediction
Oklahoma State 31, Nebraska 28
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Texas A&M (5-1) at Texas Tech (5-1)
2:30 p.m. - ABC
It's the ultimate contrast in styles, with Texas Tech and the nation's leading passing game, looking for its first real win of the season against A&M and the nation's seventh bset rushing attack. The Aggies are 2-0 in Big 12 play, but those came against the two weakest teams on the schedule, Baylor and Oklahoma State, and it could be argued that this is the easiest date left with road trips to Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri ahead, along with Kansas and Texas at home. However, A&M hasn't won in Lubbock since 1993, and will try for a little revenge after losing 31-27 to the Red Raiders on a last minute pass last year. Texas Tech's best win so far is against, well, UTEP. The offense has been tremendous, with the pitch-and-catch combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree setting records, and now it has to face a good team, even if it doesn't play a whole bunch of defense.
Why Texas A&M might win
Texas Tech played two teams that could run a little bit, and UTEP ran for 214 yards and two touchdowns, and Oklahoma State gashed the D for 386 yards and four scores. While this is a quick-strike Red Raider attack that's able to score in a minute, making the time of possession not that big of a deal, A&M should be able to control the tempo by pounding the ball for well over 250 yards. While this hasn't always worked for the Aggies, the offensive line should be able to push around the Tech defensive front enough to be effective.
Why Texas Tech might win
Texas A&M might have a good defensive brand name, the secondary isn't doing much to stop anyone's passing game. Miami can't throw against anyone, and it came up with 275 yards and two touchdowns with Kyle Wright completing 21 of 26 passes. Oklahoma State got 259 yards and two scores, and Fresno State, who hasn't thrown on anyone, cranked out 260 yards and three touchdowns. The Aggies have no pass rush whatsoever, meaning Harrell should have an hour to find the open man. If you don't touch Harrell, he'll complete 80% of his throws and come up with 500 yards.
Who to Watch
Michael Crabtree is coming up with an all-timer of a start, catching three touchdown passes in five of the first six games, and two in the sixth, and has double-digit catches in five of the six games, and eight in limited time against Northwestern State. Of course, A&M knows this and will try to cover him with everyone but Reveille. That might mean senior Danny Amendola will become a key player, and he's had enough good games to suggest he might be able to pick up the slack. With four games with ten catches or more, he's a perfect number two receiver who can move the chains and set up the offense so Crabtree can come up with the score.
What Will Happen
A&M beat Oklahoma State and Oklahoma State beat Tech, so the Aggies should win, right? Not quite. A&M will pound the ball on the Red Raiders, but it won't matter. The lack of a pass rush will kill the secondary, as Harrell and Crabtree keep on cranking.
Latest Spread
Texas Tech is favored by 8.5 points at home.
Prediction
Texas Tech 45, Texas A&M 31
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Colorado (4-2) at Kansas State (3-2)
8:15 p.m. - ESPN2
Considering how strong the Big 12 North, outside of Iowa State, appears to be this year, there's no margin for error, and there's especially no extra chances for Kansas State to give away any home games. Last week, the Wildcats lost a tough battle with archrival Kansas, and with just two home days left after this week, they must win to have any prayer of sticking around the title chase. For Colorado, the 2-0 Big 12 start has upped the stakes in a big way. There wasn't any letdown after the program-changing win over Oklahoma, beating Baylor 43-23, and with Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska all coming to Boulder, the Buffs can start dreaming big if they can come out of Manhattan with the win. A win would make it a three-way race between Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri for the North.
Why Colorado might win
Kansas State needs the big play to win. Whether it comes from the special teams, and short pass turned into a long gain, or on a turnover, the scores have to come outside of the conventional way. This isn't a consistent Wildcat offense, with an inefficient passing game, no real rushing attack, and no real ability to crank out long drives. If Colorado can limit the mistakes and not turn the ball over, hardly a given so far this year, and if it can win the special teams battle, then the Midwest version of Virginia Tech will struggle.
Why Kansas State might win
The last three weeks are an aberration; this Colorado offense isn't all that great. Miami (OH) and Baylor don't play defense like Kansas State does, with an aggressive front that should keep Cody Hawkins pressing all game long. Colorado has done a great job in pass protection so far, but the Wildcat scheme is funky enough to manufacture sacks and pressure from different angles. Offensively, QB Josh Freeman should have plenty of time to work behind an offensive line that, outside of a few series against Auburn, is standing on its head in pass protection. Colorado hits like a ton of bricks, but it doesn't generate too much pressure.
Who to Watch
This might be a passing of the torch from the 2006 best defensive player in the Big 12, Kansas State's Iam Campbell, to this year's best player, Colorado LB Jordan Dizon. The undersized Dizon appears to be hell-bent tobe in on every tackle possible, leading the nation in stops, and leading in solo tackles by a wide margin. With the pass rush struggling so far this year, he's being used more to get to the quarterback, but this role this weekend will be to stop the run. Meanwhile, Campbell is still trying to find his way in a new role as a hybrid linebacker and defensive end. He's not making nearly as many tackles as last year, but he's come up with a few big plays over the last two weeks, with an interception for a score against Texas and a sack against Kansas.
What Will Happen
Expect a good defensive battle with turnovers being the difference. Kansas State will force them, Colorado won't.
Latest Spread
Kansas State is favored by 5.5 points at home.
Prediction
Kansas State 24, Colorado 20 |
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reideen
Posts:279
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| 10/10/2007 11:02 AM |
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Already did this.
http://www.bigsports590.com/Forum/tabid/2776/forumid/5/postid/5666/view/topic/Default.aspx
Course, since we don't have a moderator here to merge like threads, post all the picks again in this thread!  |
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Logan
Posts:2525
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| 10/10/2007 11:04 AM |
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| as much as i'd like to see mizzou win i think this will be the first of many times we see gary pinkel step on it this year. big game bob may not have won as many big games recently as he did when he first got to ou but he can coach circles around pinkel. |
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dwight, refuting reality one post at a time. |
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egami
Posts:5570
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| 10/10/2007 11:07 AM |
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| He posts this every week...I forget what website it's from. Just bump your prediction thread again if need be, reideen. |
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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wscsuperfan
Posts:231
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| 10/10/2007 11:47 AM |
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| I didn't see your earlier post.....my bad. These picks are from the folks at CollegeFootballNews.com |
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reideen
Posts:279
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| 10/10/2007 11:58 AM |
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Posted By egami on 10/10/2007 11:07 AM
He posts this every week...I forget what website it's from. Just bump your prediction thread again if need be, reideen.
Nah - I really don't care - just pointing out the lack of moderation on the board, for what its worth. |
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egami
Posts:5570
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| 10/10/2007 12:03 PM |
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| This board is 99% self-moderation except every once in a while when Adolph Perrault shows up with his panties in a bunch because his girlfriend ditched and he's made himself look like an utter fool and wants to try and save some face. |
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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Logan
Posts:2525
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| 10/10/2007 3:56 PM |
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Posted By wscsuperfan on 10/10/2007 11:47 AM
I didn't see your earlier post.....my bad. These picks are from the folks at CollegeFootballNews.com
it doesn't matter to me where they get posted just so long as they do. always good info. |
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dwight, refuting reality one post at a time. |
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