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dontcallmejerome
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| 10/02/2007 5:45 PM |
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The below is a detailed info on my reasearch with full games which includes 2 different systems with full games plus my half system is also included with this post. I wanted to give you detailed info on these systems so it can answer most of your questions.)
NBA BACK TO BACK ROAD SYSTEM
THE PLAN: My plan is an attempt to address the concerns about a trend with the nba road system (full games). Last season was the the first losing season with full games in nine years but signs of this trend started the previous season. I am still a believer in the road system but I felt a few adjustments were needed. This system could be a stand alone system for full games or it could be used in conjunction with the regular nba road system.
THE IDEA: The impact of the fatique factor is one of the major if not the most important part of the road system. The idea of back to back games, games played in consecutive days of a road trip starting with the third game or more of a series could be the highest point of the fatique factor. I researched the idea that it would be difficult for road teams to cover the spread and the over for totals for 6 consecutive games if we placed back to back games of all teams in sequence based on date of each game.The plan is that the home team will cover the spread and the under for totals on the 2nd gm only of the back to back games based on the below rules. Same rules apply for this chase system as compared to other road system plays. We have placed all plays in one huge system and after a unit is won the series starts over with the next scheduled game. It is like having one long road trip and doing restarts on a continuous basis for the entire season. This will give up to 6 games for every series and will eliminate all pushes and also eliminate 3 game series which usually counts for most series losses in previous years with the regular nba road system. The NBA back to back road system will require a bankroll of fewer units because of less plays and ONLY 2 series max at any one time.
RULES:
**The first and only back to back game starting with the 3rd game of each road series (see # # below).
** All teams included. There are ZERO no play teams with this system
** No more than one gm per day for each catergory (ats/totals).
** Back to back games placed in sequence by date.
** No plays in April.
** No new series with less than 6 games left.
** Tie-breaker: When more than one game is schedule for the same day, the deepest game of a road series is the first option and if there is still a tie, the home team that is first in alphabetical order as the last option to break the tie.
# #: My research indicated overall that the first back to back game starting with the third game of each road series had the greatest impact than any following back to back games of the same road trip. Example: Last season, there were 6 such road trips when this occured and 9 possible qualifing plays with only 2 covers.
RESEARCH RESULTS: I RESEARCH THE LAST 5 YEARS and my research of this idea proved to be better than I anticipated. NO SERIES LOSSES OVER 5 YEARS OF RESEARCH! I used the same criteria for each season for 5 years of research based on the above rules. I used a familiar data source which I consider conservative (goldsheet). See below for details of my research.
SEASON ................... SERIES RECORD ....................UNITS
2006-07...............................47 - 0 ................................47
2005-06...............................59 - 0 ................................59
2004-05...............................56 - 0.................................56
2003-04...............................48 - 0 ................................48
2002-03...............................60 - 0 ................................60
TOTALS.............................270 - 0 ...............................270
AVE UNITS PER SEASON...........................................54
SERIES DETAILS BY EACH SEASON:
SUMMARY: 2006-07
................................................ATS ....................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES ...................13.........................12
2ND GM OF SERIES....................8...........................3
3RD GM OF SERIES....................2...........................3
4TH GM OF SERIES....................0........................... 0
5TH GM OF SERIES....................2............................4
6TH GM OF SERIES....................0............................0
TOTAL....................................25...........................22
SERIES RECORD..........47 - 0
COMMENTS: Compared to the regular NBA road system for 2006-07, our NBA back to back road system did well. No series losses and NO 6th gm plays. The regular road system lost over 60 units but our back to back system won over 40 units. That is over 100 units difference!!!
SUMMARY: 2005-06
..........................................................ATS............................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................16.................................12
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................8...................................11
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................3................................... 6
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................3....................................0
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................0....................................0
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0....................................0
TOTAL..................................................30...............................29
SERIES RECORD.......59 - 0
COMMENTS: WE HAVE SOME IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS HERE!
ATS: NO 5TH AND 6TH GM PLAYS.
UNDER: NO 4TH . 5TH AND 6TH GM PLAYS.
COMMENTS: Compared to the regular NBA road system over the last 2 years, the back to back system won over 100 units more units with fewer plays!
SUMMARY: 2004-05
..............................................................ATS............................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................13.................................15
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................6...................................12
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................2................................... 2
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................3....................................0
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................2....................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0....................................0
TOTAL......................................................26..................................30
SERIES RECORD.........56 - 0
SUMMARY: 2003-04
..............................................................ATS............................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................15.................................13
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................4...................................4
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................4...................................3
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................1...................................2
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1...................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................1...................................0
TOTAL......................................................25..................................23
SERIES RECORD.........48 - 0
SUMMARY: 2002-03
..........................................................ATS............................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................14.................................21
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................4...................................8
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................4...................................1
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................3...................................1
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1...................................2
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................1...................................0
TOTAL..................................................27..................................33
SERIES RECORD.........60 - 0
BETTING PROGRESSION OPTIONS (based on -110)
Full unit betting progression: (1) 1.1 .. (2) 2.3 ..(3) 4.85 .. (4) 10.2 .. (5) 21.4.. (6) optional = 39.85 units (5 plays)
Half unit betting progression: .(1).55 ..(2) 1.15 ..(3) 2.43 .. (4) 5.1 .. (5) 10.7 ..(6) 22.45 = 42.38 units (6 plays)
COMMENTS: The ATS had only 2 games go to the 6th game of the series and the UNDER had 0 games go to the 6th game over the last 5 years. Also, the ATS and UNDER had NO games go to the 6th play of a series for the last 3 years. Later, I will post the Back to Back schedule for the full season.
NBA ROAD SYSTEM / 4TH GM PLUS / UNDER
This system also considers the fatique factor by looking at the 4th game and more of each road series by playing the under for totals. Same rules apply as the Back to Back system except rule #1.
SEASON ................... SERIES RECORD ....................UNITS
2006-07...............................40 - 0 ................................40
2005-06...............................44 - 0 ................................44
2004-05...............................48 - 0.................................48
2003-04...............................40 - 0 ................................40
2002-03...............................43 - 0 ................................43
TOTALS.............................215 - 0 ...............................215
AVE UNITS PER SEASON...........................................43.6
SERIES DETAILS FOR EACH SEASON...
SUMMARY: 2006-07
............................................................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................20
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................10
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................4
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................5
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0
LOSS........................................................0
TOTAL......................................................40
SERIES RECORD.........40 - 0
SUMMARY: 2005-06
............................................................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................24
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................5
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................8
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................6
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0
LOSS........................................................0
TOTAL......................................................44
SERIES RECORD.........44 - 0
SUMMARY: 2004-05
............................................................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................27
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................11
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................4
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................4
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................0
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................2
LOSS........................................................0
TOTAL......................................................48
SERIES RECORD.........48 - 0
SUMMARY: 2003-04
............................................................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................23
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................8
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................6
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................2
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0
LOSS........................................................0
TOTAL......................................................40
SERIES RECORD.........40 - 0
SUMMARY: 2002-03
............................................................UNDER
1ST GM OF SERIES.................................22
2ND GM OF SERIES.................................11
3RD GM OF SERIES.................................4
4TH GM OF SERIES..................................5
5TH GM OF SERIES..................................1
6TH GM OF SERIES..................................0
LOSS........................................................0
TOTAL......................................................43
SERIES RECORD.........43 - 0
COMMENTS: I ALSO LOOKED AT THE ATS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE WERE 5 SERIES THAT WENT AT LEAST TO THE 6TH GAME OF THE SERIES WITH 2 LOSSES OVER THE LAST 5 YEARS COMPARED TO THE UNDER WITH ONLY 2 SERIES GOING TO THE 6TH GAME WITH NO LOSSES. LATER, I WILL POST THE SCHEDULE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON.
NBA ROAD SYSTEM HALVES / ATS
(EXPLANATION REVISTED FOR 07- 08)
THE PLAN: The idea of the nba road system (halves/ats) is to play against a road team that is out of its comfort zone and with the fatigue factor to consider, so we play up to the last 6 halves with the last half being optional of a 3 or more games road trip. Stop the series when a cover is made by the home team. I noticed a few years ago with the regular nba road system, losses with full games would have been wins with halves. So I researched this idea with halves ... that it is more difficult for a road team to cover every half as compared to full games. Find your best line for the first half and if the first half loses bet at half-time for the 2nd half. Our road teams that we do not play can vary from year to year. Betting progression: To win one unit... double bet plus juice until it covers. See below for more details.
RULES FOR THE ROAD SYSTEM WITH HALVES (ATS)
1. Bet against the road team (ats) on a road trip of three or more games.
2. Play up to the LAST 3 games of a road series until a cover is made. Of course on a 3 game road trip it would all 3 games. (see below for more details)*
3. Find your best line for the first half and if it does not cover place your bet at half-time for the second half for the second play of the series. If there is still a no cover after two plays, your third play would be the first half of the second game of the series and etc.
4.Betting progression: the goal is to win one unit. (see below for more details)
5. No play road teams for this season includes: BOS,DAL,DEN,HOU,MIA,PHO,SA,TOR
6. Any series that starts before the christmas break must conclude by dec. 22 or it is a no play.
7. Series games must be 3 games or less between games or the series is a no play.
8. The main problem with this system: You must be available to make half-time wagers.
* 6 game series ... start with the 4th game of the series
* 5 game series ... start with the 3rd game of the series
* 4 game series ... start with the 2nd game of the series
* 3 game series ... start with the 1st game of the series
BETTING PROGRESSION TO WIN ONE UNIT (based on -110)
First play .......... risk 1.1 to win 1.0
Second play .... risk 2.3 to win 2.1
Third play ......... risk 4.85 to win 4.41
Fourth play ...... risk 10.2 to win 9.26
Fifth play .......... risk 21.4 to win 19.46
Sixth play ......... optional
EXAMPLE SERIES: ATL @ LAC, GS, SEA
1st play: atl @ lac (1st half) risk 1.1 to win 1.0 ........ results - loss
2nd play: atl @ lac (2nd half) risk 2.3 to win 1.0 ...... results - loss
3rd play: atl @ gs (1st half) risk 4.85 to win 4.41 .... results - win
The series ends with a cover on the 3rd play for 1 unit won.
HALVES/ATS .... SEASON RECORDS
2003-04 ... 102 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2004-05 ... 99 SERIES WINS AND 0 LOSSES
2005-06 ... 108 SERIES WINS AND 1 LOSS
2006-07 ... 83 SERIES WINS AND 1 LOSS
COMMENTS: Later, I will post the schedule for the entire season.
SUMMARY: NBA ROAD SYSTEMS
1. HALVES/ATS
2. BACK TO BACK FULL GAMES/UNDER
3. BACK TO BACK FULL GAMES/ATS
4. 4TH GM PLUS /UNDER
SUMMARY: SEASON RECORDS (LAST 5 SEASONS)
YEAR............................SYSTEM#1..........SYSTEM#2............SYSTEM#3...........SYSTEM#4 ...............TOTAL
2006-07.............................83 - 1...................22 - 0.....................25 - 0...................40 - 0...................... 170 - 1
2005-06............................108 - 1..................29 - 0.....................30 - 0...................44 - 0........................211 - 1
2004-05.............................99 - 0...................30 - 0.....................26 - 0...................48 - 0........................203 - 0
2003-04............................102 - 0 .................23 - 0......................25 - 0...................40 - 0........................190 - 0
2002-03.............................NA.......................33 - 0.....................27 - 0....................43 - 0........................103 - 0 |
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