BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Texas Christian (4-0) at Oklahoma (3-0)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 6:00 p.m. (FSN)
Why to Watch
September 3rd, 2005. Oklahoma was coming off a loss to USC for the 2004 national title and had won 26 of its previous 29 games. TCU opened up the 2005 season by pulling off a shocking 17-10 win. That was only Oklahoma's second home loss since 1998 (a 16-13 gaffe to Oklahoma State at the end of 2001 was the other), and it was the first loss to a team from outside a BCS conference sicne a 51-31 loss to San Diego State in 1996. This year, TCU is flying under the Mountain West radar compared to BYU and Utah, but it has the nation's leading defense and leads the nation in run defense. It hasn't played a top-notch offense yet, but now it'll get its chance to show whether or not it really is ready to handle the big boys. Oklahoma has arguably been the nation's most dominant team over the first few weeks, winning its first three games by a combined scoer of 164 to 42. It's the nation's best scoring offense vs. the nation's No. 3 scoring defense. It's the Mountain West getting a shot at another big feather in its cap after spending the first few weeks ripping up the Pac-10. It should be an interesting tell-tale battle no matter what happens.
Why TCU might win
The lines. TCU doesn’t have the offensive and defensive lines that Oklahoma has, but they’re playing extremely well. The offensive front has allowed just three sacks in four games, while the defensive front has come up with a whipping 36 tackles for loss and is eighth in the nation in sacks with 14. This is a typical, aggressive, productive Gary Patterson defense that swarms to the ball and gets to the quarterback. If nothing else, this will be the most pressure OU QB Sam Bradford has faced all season.
Why Oklahoma might win
It’s not like TCU has faced a brick wall of a run defense. The Horned Frog running game has been impressive so far, but the best run defense it has dealt with is …. New Mexico? The TCU passing attack hasn’t had to do much, and it hasn’t exactly been efficient even with everyone keying on the ground game. You can’t beat Oklahoma if you’re one-dimensional. TCU might be fourth in the nation in tackles for loss, but OU leads the country averaging ten per game.
Who to Watch
TCU quickly reloaded on its defensive front with Matt Panfil and Cody Moore going from out of the spotlight to superstar status. Panfil, a 232-pound senior end has tremendous quickness and has blown up now that he’s the No. 1 guy. He has come up with 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss, while Moore, a tremendously quick tackle, has cranked out 5.5 tackles for loss and three sacks. These two are disruptive forces who have to play big roles to pressure Bradford.
What Will Happen
TCU will start out well for a few drives and should keep OU in check for a quarter, and then the Sooner offense will be the Sooner offense. TCU's passing game won't be able to do enough to offset the lack of a running game, while OU will go on a big run for about ten minutes to put the game away.
Latest Spread
Oklahoma is favored at home by 17.5 points
Prediction
Oklahoma 27, Texas Christian 10
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Army (0-3) at Texas A&M (1-2)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 11:30 a.m.
Why to Watch
Texas A&M needed to hold on for dear life two years ago to beat Army 28-24 in a supposedly neutral site game in San Antonio. Both programs have changed drastically since then, and neither for the better. Army has been awful so far with the new running game not doing enough to lead an offense that’s 115th in the nation in yards and is next-to-last in scoring. On a nine-game losing streak dating back to last year, the Black Knights desperately need something positive to happen. Texas A&M hasn’t done much better to start off the year, barely beating New Mexico and losing home games to Arkansas State and Miami. The Big 12 season starts out next week against Oklahoma State, and the Aggies have a lot of work to do to be ready.
Why Army might win
If the Army offense is ever going to work against a name team, this would be the time. The Aggie run defense has been awful, giving up 255 yards to Arkansas State and 216 yards and three scores to New Mexico. The linebackers haven’t played well, and this week, they’re going to need to shine at a whole other level if the Army option attack finally starts to kick in.
Why Texas A&M might win
Army’s offense has been awful. It would be one thing to score a total of 20 points in three games against LSU, Florida and Georgia, but Army has played Temple, New Hampshire, and Akron. The offense isn’t working, and there isn’t any passing game to fall back on. The defensive line has been abysmal against mediocre offensive lines, the turnovers won’t stop flowing, and the special teams have stunk. Other than that, Army has been fine.
Who to Watch
The Texas A&M quarterback this week will be … both? The Aggie coaching staff can’t figure out the quarterback situation as both Stephen McGee and Jerrod Johnson have shoulder injuries. McGee is back after missing last week, while Johnson, who had a nice day against Miami but took too many sacks, will also be in the mix. The Aggies can play either one, or both, against Army and it won’t matter. However, the team needs a leader to work around before diving into Big 12 play.
What Will Happen
Texas A&M will suddenly look like a BCS title contender against a team that might be the worst in college football.
Latest Spread
Texas A&M is favored by 28.5 points at home.
Prediction
Texas A&M 38, Army 13
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Colorado (3-0) vs. Florida State (2-1) - at Jacksonville
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 2:30 p.m. (ABC)
Why to Watch
With a chance to send a message to the country that it's on the way back to prominence, Florida State flopped, losing ugly to Wake Forest. The Seminoles were bad no so many levels, including failing to reach the end zone and turning the ball over seven times. After teasing everyone with routs of Western Carolina and Chattanooga, the 'Noles got exposed as a team in need of work. Lots of work. FSU is still making too many mental errors and unable to develop sustained consistency at quarterback. Can they build from here, or do the FSU follies continue? A visit from Colorado will answer plenty about Florida State's mindset and direction. The Buffaloes are riding high after upsetting West Virginia in overtime with a large television audience glued to the waning moments. While it wasn't as profound as last September's upset of Oklahoma, it did get the Buffs to the lip of the Top 25 cup and to 3-0 for the first time since 2004. A trip to Florida gives Dan Hawkins a chance to spread his program's message to a whole new corner of the map.
Why Colorado might win
The Florida State offense is a comedy of errors, marked by turnovers, penalties, and a lack of depth on the offensive line. The Seminoles will have a hard time moving the chains on a Buffalo defense that just got done holding West Virginia to 14 points, and has yielded just a pair of touchdown passes all year. On the inside, George Hypolite and Brandon Nicolas are a couple of future pros, who’ll dominate that suspect ‘Nole front wall. We saw last week what happens when Florida State can’t run the ball and must put the offense in the hands of quarterbacks Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson.
Why Florida State might win
Lost in last week’s debacle was the play of the defense, which kept the Demon Deacons out of the end zone despite those seven turnovers. Had the ‘Noles not been so sloppy with the ball, they might have pitched a shutout. LB Derek Nicholson was a force of nature, and the return of DT Budd Thacker helped ease the congestion for DE Everette Brown and the rest of the defensive linemen. For all the problems facing Florida State, the defense isn’t one of them, giving up just one touchdown through the first three quarters.
Who to Watch
The Seminoles will have to contend with a couple of true freshmen backs, blue-chip recruit Darrell Scott and diminutive Rodney Stewart, who scooted for 166 yards on 28 carries in the win against West Virginia. The Buffs don’t have many lethal weapons at wide receiver, which will allow S Myron Rolle to spend more time pressing up to stop the run.
What Will Happen
The Florida State defense will turn this into an ugly game of punts, three-and-outs, and field goal attempts. It'll also help lead the Seminoles to a stabilizing victory, holding Colorado to just 300 total yards and a touchdown short of a road upset. Richardson will provide the difference on offense, getting to the corner and beating the Buff secondary to the end zone.
Latest Spread
Florida State is favored at home by 7 points.
Prediction
Florida State 17, Colorado 13
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Arkansas (2-1) at Texas (3-0)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 2:30 p.m. (ABC)
Why to Watch
Let’s try this again. Hurricane Ike postponed this showdown between two former Southwest Conference superpowers, and since then, Arkansas got hammered by Alabama 49-14 and Texas rolled over Rice. Longhorn head man Mack Brown wanted this off-week to rest up for the Big 12 season with a trip to Colorado, the battle with Oklahoma, and a home date with Missouri to kick off a killer stretch of conference games without a break. The Hogs need time in general. Like Texas, they don’t get any sort of a break. This was supposed to be the off-week to prepare for Florida and then Auburn, but now it’s all about trying to get the Bobby Petrino era rolling with a statement performance in Austin. Arkansas is 2-1, it’s not like things have gone into the tank from the start, but the wins over Western Illinois and UL Monroe were too tight for comfort. Meanwhile, Texas beat Florida Atlantic, UTEP and Rice by a combined score of 146 to 33.
Why Arkansas might win
This is going to be a theme for most of the year: the Texas secondary is struggling. To be fair, teams are bombing away in comeback mode to try to keep up with the Longhorn offense, but it’s not like the Texas defensive backs are stopping anyone cold allowing 255 yards to FAU, 267 to UTEP, and 301 to Rice. Casey Dick and the SEC-leading Arkansas passing game should be able to bomb away.
Why Texas might win
Pressure. Texas is getting into the backfield early and often, cranking out nine sacks and 22 tackles for loss. The Arkansas offensive line has been a disaster so far allowing ten sacks and doing little for the running game. Injuries have been a problem, but it’s also about the transition to the new coaching staff and the offense. The Texas defensive front should be able to take advantage and force plenty of mistakes.
Who to Watch
While Chase Daniel, Sam Bradford, and Graham Harrell are just a few of the Big 12 quarterbacks getting noticed on a national scale, Colt McCoy is playing as well as any of them, if not better. Now only is McCoy taking the passing game to another level, hitting 78% of his passes for 833 yards and 11 touchdowns with an interception, and he leads the team with 194 rushing yards and two touchdowns. By far, this is his toughest test yet, but it’ll be nothing like he’ll face over the next few weeks.
What Will Happen
Texas will need a while to get going with little running game to rely on outside of McCoy, but there will be enough of an offensive mix for the Longhorns to get by with ease. Two key Hog turnovers will make an interesting battle a blowout.
Latest Spread
Texas is favored at home by 27.5 points
Prediction
Texas 38, Arkansas 17
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Virginia Tech (3-1) at Nebraska (3-0)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 7:00 p.m. (ABC)
Why to Watch
The Bo Pelini era in Lincoln began on Aug. 30 when Western Michigan visited Memorial Stadium. For most Husker fans, however, things don't really get started until Virginia Tech comes to town for Saturday night's primetime affair. Nebraska is unbeaten, yet really hasn't been tested, and has delivered mixed results on both sides of the ball. This weekend will give the program a chance to show a big chunk of the country just how far along it's coming under Pelini. Give credit to Frank Beamer and the Hokies for rebounding with three straight wins after dropping the opener to East Carolina. No one is pretending thi sis a vintage Virginia Tech team, yet it's eked out back-to-back three point wins over ACC rivals, stamping it as the early favorite in the Coastal Division. There's no substitute for a great coaching staff, something Husker fans hope to be preaching before too long.
Why Virginia Tech might win
The one constant for the Hokies this fall has been the play of the defense, which has gotten better with each passing week. In last week's pivotal win over North Carolina, the unit had four sacks and created an equal number of turnovers. The pressure is coming from multiple sources across the line, including speedy ends Orion Martin and Jason Worilds. The Husker offense has been sporadic, and will have problems with this Tech D. Beating up on the likes of Western Michigan and New Mexico State has not prepared it for a well-coached group that will strip the ball and wrap up its tackles.
Why Nebraska might win
Although this isn't your daddy's Blackshirt defense, it's already evident that Pelini is having a positive impact on that side of the ball. Since having some breakdowns versus Western Michigan, the Huskers have gone more than eight quarters without allowing a touchdown pass and have been particularly stingy in the red zone. Led by linemen Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska already has nine sacks, which is good for No. 2 in the Big 12. The way the Hokies are sputtering on offense, ranking 112th nationally, their problems moving the ball figure to continue this weekend.
Who to Watch
Pelini hasn't decided on a feature back, so he'll continue using three, Marlon Lucky, Roy Helu, Jr., and Quentin Castille, who all offer something a little different to the offense. The Huskers are averaging 189 yards a game on teh ground, meaning something is working. The trio will have to be a factor because Joe Ganz is going to find it difficult throwing on CB Victor Harris and an improving Hokie defensive backfield.
What Will Happen
Intangibles are always tough to gauge, but you've got to figure that the atmosphere in Lincoln will be electric and the Huskers will feed off that energy. While the program isn't where it needs to be yet, it'll still capture its most important victory of the past few years. The heroes will be on a defense that keeps QB Tyrod Taylor from making big plays and forces the Hokies to attempt field goals when touchdowns are needed.
Latest Spread
Nebraska is favored at home by 7 points.
Prediction
Nebraska 27, Virginia Tech 16
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Louisiana-Lafayette (1-2) at Kansas State (2-1)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 2:35 p.m.
Why to Watch
Kansas State finally played someone, and the defense went bye-bye. After blasting North Texas and Montana State without a problem, the Wildcats went to Louisville and wasn’t even close to coming up with a stop. Now comes the date against a decent UL Lafayette offense, but this should be a walk in the park before dealing with Texas Tech and the Big 12 slate starting next week. ULL got its first win of the year with a 44-27 blasting of Kent State, and the week before there was a good battle in a 20-17 loss to Illinois. Flying under the radar in the Sun Belt title discussion (and yes, there is one), this is a chance to make some noise before going to UL Monroe next week as part of a stretch of five road dates in the first six games.
Why UL-Lafayette might win
303 yards and three touchdowns. That’s what the Louisville offense was able to run for, along with 274 passing yards and two scores. The Kansas State defense was a tremendous disappointment, and now it has to prove the front seven can handle a running game that makes things happen when it gets its players in space. Michael Desormeaux and Tyrell Fenroy lead the nation’s 11th best running game, and it should be able to produce.
Why Kansas State might win
If Kansas State ever wanted to get its running game going, this would be the time. The Ragin’ Cajun defense got gouged by Southern Miss for 427 yards and five touchdowns, and struggled last week in the win over Kent State allowing 227 yards and two touchdowns even though top Golden Flash runner Eugene Jarvis was out.
Who to Watch
Alright, so who’s actually going to run the ball for the Wildcats? KSU ran a total of 12 times against Louisville for 30 yards. Keithen Valentine, the team’s leading rusher by default, ran for 14 yards on six carries. Valentine and QB Josh Freeman have seen most of the carries, and eventually, someone has to step up and provide a steady ying to Freeman’s passing game yang.
What Will Happen
For the first time this year, ULL will see a passing game and it won’t know how to handle it. KSU will get a big day out of Freeman to offset a 100-yard rushing day from Desormeaux.
Latest Spread
Kansas State is favored by 21 points at home.
Prediction
Kansas State 44, Louisiana-Lafayette 20
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Troy (2-1) at Oklahoma State (3-0)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 6:05 p.m.
Why to Watch
Troy pulled off a slight shocker early on last year with a dominant 41-23 win over Oklahoma State, but this year, it would be even more of a stunner. Oklahoma State is far better, far tighter, and far more explosive having blasted Washington State, Houston and Missouri State by a combined score of 152 to 63. Considering Texas A&M, next week’s opponent in OSU’s Big 12 opener, is down, anything less than a 5-0 start going into the trip to Missouri would be a big disappointment. Troy has played well so far, and while it has a more important battle next week at Florida Atlantic in a key test for the Sun Belt title, beating the Cowboys would do wonders for the program and a Sun Belt conference that’s getting more and more respect.
Why Troy might win
The defense is still really good. It held up well against Ohio State allowing 170 rushing yards and 139 through the air, and it’s been special over the first three games when it comes to getting into the backfield. For the first time this year, OSU will feel a little bit of pressure from a pass rush and an aggressive defensive front.
Why Oklahoma State might win
Zac Robinson. Ohio State was able to bear Troy last week with a good defensive effort and a nice day from Terrelle Pryor. Robinson hasn’t needed to run too much yet, but he’s mobile enough to neutralize the Troy aggressiveness and he’s been ultra-efficient throwing the ball. Robinson should get even more time considering Troy will be without star pass rusher Kenny Mainor, who suffered a knee injury last week and might be lost for the year.
Who to Watch
He’s not big and he doesn’t have the lightning speed of past Oklahoma State backs, but sophomore Kendall Hunter has carried the running game so far averaging eight yards per carry with 107 yards against Washington State, 210 against Houston, and 132 against Missouri State with two touchdowns in each game.
What Will Happen
OSU's offensive machine will keep on marching. The offensive line will dominate the game, while the defense will do just enough to keep the mediocre Troy offense under wraps.
Latest Spread
Oklahoma State is favored by 17 points at home.
Prediction
Oklahoma State 38, Troy 17
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Northwestern (4-0) at Iowa (3-1)
Saturday, Sept. 27 - 11:00 a.m. (ESPN Classic)
Why to Watch
Iowa might be a strong home team, but it wasn’t able to beat Northwestern the last time the two played in Iowa City. 6-5 against the Hawkeyes over the last 11 meetings, the Wildcats have done more than hold their own. Now they need a win to go 5-0 for the first time since 1962, and with home games against Michigan State and Purdue to follow, and relatively light road dates at Indiana and Minnesota after that, this could be the biggest battle on the way to a truly special start to the season. Of course, that’s getting ahead about 57 steps considering Northwestern struggled against teams like Duke and Ohio. Iowa has been dismissed a bit after losing to Pitt in a 21-20 battle, but the defense has been tremendous over the first month and the offense has found a decent running game. With three road dates in the next four games, the Hawkeyes need this win to show that the Pitt game was an aberration, and to take advantage of a key Big Ten home game.
Why Northwestern might win
Iowa can’t get its quarterback play straight. The production has been there, averaging 202 yards per game and getting efficient play, for the most part, but it’s been hard to find a steady leader to run the show. Is it Ricky Stanzi or Jake Christensen? It’s Stanzi this week, but he’ll be looking over his shoulder after Christensen threw for 124 yards and ran for a score last week. In any event, the upheaval has been a problem for the Hawkeye offense.
Why Iowa might win
Northwestern can’t get its quarterback play straight. There’s no quarterback controversy like there is at Iowa, but C.J. Bacher hasn’t been close to the same player he was last year when he led the Big Ten if total offense. He has been inefficient, he hasn’t been consistent, and now he has sprained fingers on his throwing hand. He struggled last week after hurting his hand throwing four picks against Ohio, and he should end up giving away a few turnovers against the aggressive Hawkeye defense.
Who to Watch
It’ll be hard to get First Team All-Big Ten running back honors in a league with Beanie Wells, Javon Ringer and P.J. Hill, but Iowa’s Shonn Greene and Northwestern’s Tyrell Sutton should come close. Sutton has done a little of everything for the Wildcat offense, but he left last week’s game with a hamstring injury. While he’s not 100%, he’ll play and will be given a full workload. Greene has been magnificent so far. The Big Ten’s second leading rusher, behind Ringer, Greene has rushed for over a 100 yards with a touchdown in each of the first four games. He outdueled Pitt star LeSean McCoy last week, rushing for 147 yards to McCoy’s 78 yards.
What Will Happen
Iowa's offense will struggle against the Northwestern defensive lien that'll be camped out in the backfield, but the defense will stop the Wildcat offense time and again in the second half. Northwestern won't get its running game going, and it won't be able to get enough from Bacher to pull off the road win.
Latest Spread
Iowa is favored by 8 points at home.
Prediction
Iowa 23, Northwestern 14
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