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wscsuperfan
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| 08/28/2007 10:26 AM |
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BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma State at Georgia
This falls under the category of mega-statement games for two very good programs that'll be sleepers (if that's possible for Georgia) in their respective division races, and for two power conferences. Oklahoma State is loaded with the type of speed and athleticism that SEC fans like to brag about on a regular basis. This is the ultimate feast-or-famine, home run hitting team that can put up points in bunches, and it's a team Georgia needs to be really, really scared of. The Dawgs are solid on both sides of the ball, but they might have to be spectacular to avoid the upset. If Georgia wins this game easily, it means it'll be a major contender for the SEC title. For the Cowboys, this is the game that could put the Mike Gundy era on the national map.
Why Oklahoma State might win
Georgia's secondary isn't exactly a weakness, but it'll certainly be a question mark to start the year, while defensive starting experience is a major problem at all spots. A number one corner has to emerge right away after the loss of Paul Oliver to academic issues, and that means future NFL starting wide receiver Adarius Bowman should require way too much attention from the safeties. The more the defensive backs have to hang back, the more openings for the OSU ground game.
Why Georgia might win
Is Oklahoam State the real deal? Yeah, there are more than enough athletes to run with Georgia all day long, and it was able to beat Alabama rather easily in the Independence Bowl, but this is still the type of team that can beat anyone, but can lose to anyone. The Cowboyd defensive line is average, the secondary is questionable, and there's no sure-thing number two receiver on the other side of Bowman. If Georgia's young and inexperienced offensive line is ready to roll, the Bulldog ground game should equal the OSU production.
Who to Watch
SEC fans, get ready to see the best twosome of backs you might see all year (or at least a close number two behind those guys in Fayetteville). 5'9", 195 pound Dantrell Savage averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year and has the warp-wheels to crank out yards in chunks. Keith Toston is a bigger back who can also hit the home run from anywhere on the field. These two need to shine, and QB Bobby Reid has to take his rushing yards when he can get them, to have a shot at pulling off the upset.
What will happen
If Oklahoma State can keep its head for a full sixty minutes and doesn't panic when Matthew Stafford and the Bulldog offense gets the momentum on its side, it can pull off the upset. The Dawg O line is still too green, the receiving corps too average, and the secondary too suspect to beat a team as good as OSU if it's playing up to its capability.
Prediction
Oklahoma State 27, Georgia 20
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Kansas State at Auburn
When we last saw Kansas State, it was unable to do much of anything in a lousy 37-10 Texas Bowl loss to Rutgers. QB Josh Freeman couldn't throw, the defense couldn't tackle, and the team basically looked like it needed to go back to the drawing board. A good showing here would change all of that. When we last saw Auburn, it looked underwhelming in a 17-14 Cotton Bowl win over Nebraska. Sort of in the national title hunt all season long, but not really, the Tigers couldn't seem to get their mojo back after a midstretch against a slew of overmatched teams. While an impressive win over the Wildcats wouldn't necessarily mean it's time to start booking tickets for New Orleans, it would do a lot to ease concerns about what teh team might be able to do, and a little confidence would be nice before a tough battle with South Florida next week.
Why Kansas State might win
The Wildcats have to take advantage of an Auburn offensive line that's still a work in progress. While the Tigers won't be awful up front, they lose four starters and have to deal with a defense that finished sixth in the nation in sacks and 18th in tackles for loss. The new Wildcat 3-4 D should free up Ian Campbell to wreak even more havoc. Auburn QB Brandon Cox could be under pressure all day long.
Why Auburn might win
Is the Kansas state offensive line ready to be under attack from Quentin Groves and the Tiger defensive line? Yes, in theory, but all the experience and all the depth doesn't account for much without the tackles to keep Freeman upright for a full sixty minutes. For Kansas State to win, the skill players need room to roam and can't be pressured too much by the speedy Tiger D. That won't happen. Expect plenty of mistakes and just enough turnovers to give Cox and the offense short fields to work with. On the other side of the ball, the KSU defense can be shoved around aganist the run. Auburn's O line might not be ready for prime time, but it doesn't have to create much room for the speedy backs to produce.
Who to watch
All eyes will be on the quarterbacks. Cox has to go from caretaker to playmaker, and he has to make his medicore receiving corps shine. That could be a problem considering the pass rush he'll likely face, and the good KSU secondary that could grow into the team's strength. This is his team now. For the Wildcats, the season, and each game, will depend on the play of Freeman. Can he be the confident bomber who managed to overcome adversity and beat Texas, or will he be the lost passer who completed just 10 of 21 passes for 129 yards and two interceptions against Rutgers and was lousy in spring ball?
What will happen
Kansas State will get its licks in on defense and should force a few mistakes, but the Auburn defense will make the Wildcats look worse in an ugly, mistake-filled game.
Prediction
Auburn 27, Kansas State 14
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Missouri vs. Illinois (at St. Louis)
Of all the Big Ten and Big 12 week one games, few are more intriguing when it comes to two programs in search of a 2007 identity. Missouri appeared to finally be on its way to turning the corner and becoming a Big 12 powerhouse, at least in the North, and then it lost four of its final five games, bottoming out with a choke (there's simply no other word for it) against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. If it's ever going to happen in the Gary Pinkel era, it has to happen this year with the most talented and loaded team Missouri has had in decades. It's a different story for an Illinois program that's won just four games in the Ron Zook era, including a seven-game losing streak to end last year. However, the buzz around Champaign is deafening with a few jaw-dropping recruiting classes yielding as many good young players as anyone in the Big Ten. Basically, if Missouri is as good as it's supposed to be, it wins a game like this without a problem, and if Illinois is as good as it's expected to become, it finds a way to pull off an upset here and announces that things have finally changed.
Why Missouri might win
For all the headlines and all the hullabaloo around the Illini, there are still mega-question marks for the young team. The passing game will be an ongoing work in progress, the running game, outside of the scrambling of QB Juice Williams, should be mediocre, and the defensive line should have problems with a good Missouri O line. The Tigers are just good enough defensively to keep the Illini from exploding, while the Mizzou offense should be able to mix it up just enough to keep control of the game throughout. Until Williams, one of 2006's most inefficient passers, can prove he can throw the forward pass with any semblance of consistency, Mizzou should be able to load up against the run.
Why Illinois might win
Even with all the expectations on Zook and the Illini, all the pressure is on Missouri, and over the last few years under Pinkel, that hasn't been a positive. You can almost see Mizzou tighten up when the heat is on as it tries to do too much, tries to make too many plays that aren't there, and misses on the plays it needs to make to pull off the tough wins. At least that's been the past for the Tigers. It might be cliché, but the longer the Illini can hang around, the looser it should be, thanks to a playmaker like Williams who can make things happen with his legs and his arm, and a defense that should be able to keep the Tigers from running outside, thanks to J Leman and the great linebacking corps.
Who to Watch
Can the Illinois linebackers handle the Missouri tight ends? The Tigers have a special tandem in Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman, who should allow QB Chase Daniel to dink and dunk to his heart's content against most teams with mediocre linebackers. The Illinois secondary is decent, but nothing special, and if it has to cheat up to help out on the tight ends, Will Franklin should be able to make big plays deep. The 210-pound Antonio Steele is more like a safety playing linebacker, and he has to come through with a strong performance against the pass, while Leman has to be able to focus as much as possible on keeping Daniel from roaming.
What will happen
Illinois still has to prove it can win against anyone, much less against a team good enough to contend for the Big 12 title. By the end of the year, the young Illini might be mature enough to pull off a win like this, and it'll certainly tag one of the Big Ten's big boys along the way, but Missouri is simply too good all across the board.
Prediction
Missouri 27, Illinois 17
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Kent State at Iowa State
Iowa State played Toledo in last year's apparently no-big-deal opener, and it turned out to be one of the most exciting games of the first-half of the year. This might not be a triple overtime thriller, but it will be a great duel between Iowa State's Bret Meyer and Kent State's Julian Edelman, a pair of underrated playmakers who might just be the best quarterbacks in their respective conferences. Despite limited support, Meyer begins the year as the Cyclones' all-time leading passer, while Edelman was a sparkplug in his first year out of the College of San Mateo (CA), throwing for 1,859 yards and ten touchdowns, and rushing for 658 yards and seven scores. The game also marks the debut of Iowa State head coach Gene Chizik, who had a wildly successful career as a defensive coordinator and brings some much needed energy to Ames. Don't, however, expect miracles right away, or at least until the coach can upgrade the level of talent, especially along the lines. Kent State will be seeking stability this fall after being maddeningly schizophrenic a year ago. Edelman is the clear-cut catalyst for the Flashes, but needs more help if the program is going to pick off a major conference opponent for the first time since 1987.
Why Kent State might win
Iowa State has a very beatable defense that just might be the Big 12's worst heading into the season. Besides tackling machine Alvin Bowen, this is a painfully pedestrian crew that'll labor to contain Edelman and mighty-mite RB Eugene Jarvis. Defensively, the Flashes are just feisty enough with DE Kevin Hogan and DT Colin Ferrell to frustrate a patchwork Cyclone offensive line.
Why Iowa State might win
Although Kent State's defense may hold up against MAC opponents, it lacks the speed, size and depth to shut down Iowa State's playmakers, namely Meyer and hsi favorite target, Todd Blythe. Kent CB Jack Williams is a good one with blazing speed, but at just over 5'8", will be giving away almost nine inches and a lot of upper body strength to the 6'5" Blythe. Against an undersized Kent State front, the Cyclones will also establish a ground presence with.....
Who to Watch
J.J. Bass, one of the highest rated JUCO backs in the nation last year and a big coup for Iowa State. He'll share carries with Jason Scales, but Bass has the 4.4 speed in a 215 pound frame that'll make it impossible to keep him off the field as the season develops.
What Will Happen
Expect a preseason feel, as both schools search for consistency and starters in key areas. Much like last season, poor play on special teams will cost Kent State a game that it's capable of pulling out.
Prediction
Iowa State 27, Kent State 20
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Colorado State vs. Colorado (at Denver)
A pair of intense rivals coming off awful seasons would like nothing more than a fast start and to add to the other program's misery. This is supposed to be a bounce-back year for each team, but that'll end with a crashing thud for the loser. After Colorado reached bedrock with a 2-10 record last year, it'll slowly begin the climb back toward prominence with head coach Dan Hawkins leading the way. While the defense will carry the team in the early going, the biggest strides will be seen with an offense that couldn't get out of its way in 2006. The coach's son, Cody, will be behind center, and despite being young and just 5' 11", will prove to be a much better fit for the attack than Bernard Jackson was last year. Colorado won't be a favorite often this year, so this is close to a must-win situation. Over the last 40 games, Colorado State has gone 16-24, and has been a shell of the program that rocked from 1994 to 2003. Optimism for a return to prosperity comes in the form of 18 returning starters and the re-emergence of RB Kyle Bell, who missed all of last year with a knee injury. A 6'2", 230 pound hammer, he'll be looking to regain the form that led to 1,288 yards rushing and ten touchdowns in 2005.
Why Colorado might win
Lost in the Buffs' implosion a year ago was the fact that defensive coordinator Ron Collins laid the foundation of a solid unit that stopped the run and created takeaways with its aggressive style. Much of that group returns, including tackles George Hypolite and Brandon Nicolas, outside backers Jordan Dizon and Brad Jones, and Terrence Wheatley is a true shutdown corner. Colorado will corral Bell in his return to action, turning mistake-prone QB Caleb Hanie into the focal point of the Ram offense.
Why Colorado State might win
Can the Buffaloes score enough points to win this game? Hawkins will eventually be an upgrade at quarterback, but not this early in his career, or in front of 75,000 insane fans at Invesco Field. Like Colorado, Colorado State can play a little D as well. The Rams welcome back nine defensive starters and crackerjack punter Jimmie Kaylor, who'll give the Buffs a long field to navigate all afternoon. Even if Bell doesn't crank out huge numbers, his presence alone is going to be an emotional jolt to Colorado State.
Who to Watch
Bell's return from a serious knee injury will make headlines, but the main storyline will be Hawkins' debut as Colorado's starting quarterback. He'll have his baptism under fire in front of a rabid audience and in the face of a hostile opponent. Hawkins has been running this offense since he was in diapers, but will need help from an average line and a vanilla set of receivers.
What Will Happen
As always, the intensity in Denver will be a mile high. Offensive execution, however, will not. In a nip-and-tuck defensive struggle, Colorado will make a late stop to preserve an emotional and poignant victory.
Prediction
Colorado 23, Colorado State 19
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Nevada at Nebraska
Don't look ahead...............don't look ahead..............don't look ahead. You'll have to forgive Nebraska fans if they're just a wee bit excited for the coming weeks with a trip to face defending ACC champion Wake Forest coming next week followed up with the showdown that's basically been five years in the making for the Husker program when USC comes to town. In the meantime, there's still a lot to cover, with Sam Keller taking over the quarterback reins and needing to get his feet wet in what could be the most dynamic passing attack in school history. Nevada is in a true transition phase, with a good team that should be far, far better after a few games under its belt. The Wolf Pack won't be a pushover and should keep it competitive for at least a half.
Why Nevada might win
The Wolf Pack should be able to keep the Nebraska ground game in relative check. The Husker offensive line is good, but not a killer, while Nevada's strength early on should be in the defensive front, more importantly, in the linebacking corps. This is a tougher team than Husker fans might realize, and it has the strength to force Keller to be the one to keep the offense moving.
Why Nebraska might win
It's never, ever a good thing when a team is still uncertain about its starting quarterback situation this late in the summer. Nevada's average offensive line should have big problems early on if the Huskers generate any semblance of a pass rush, while the Pack secondary will have a hard time with the Nebraska receivers if they get on a roll. This might be a good Nevada team that should be in the WAC title race, but it's not quite as strong as its been in previous years, and it's not the same team that gave Miami such a hard time in the MPC Computers Bowl.
Who to Watch
Nevada's starting quarterback won't be under the microscope like Keller, but he'll still need to be efficient to keep this from being ugly. Trying to replace long-time starter Jeff Rowe will be either Nick Graziano or Colin Kaepernick, who can both run and who can each lead the offense. Graziano has a little bit of experience with great skills, while the rail-thin 6'6" Kaepernick has to throw like a tall player and has to be consistent. Also not throwing up to his size is Keller, who'll be overanalyzed by the pro scouts as well as the more demanding Husker fans. Keller tends to drop down on his throws, but that won't matter if he's making plays. He has to show that this is his offense and his team from the first drive.
What Will Happen
Nevada will be plucky, and should be good enough defensively to hang around for a little while, but the Huskers will have too much pop on both sides of the ball. After about 20 minutes, this will start to look like a special Nebraska team.
Prediction
Nebraska 38, Nevada 14
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Baylor at Texas Christian
If TCU is to remain the trendy pick to be this year’s Boise State, it has to neatly dispose of Baylor and start getting ready for next week’s monumental trip down I-35 to face Texas. Ranked No. 22 in both major pre-season polls, the Horned Frogs will be playing with a target on their backs throughout the season. To be sure, there are holes to fill on offense, but RB Aaron Brown has a high ceiling, and the all-to-the-ball defense has the parts to be downright impervious for a second straight year. Just how special the 2007 season becomes will depend heavily on the development of QB Andy Dalton, a rangy redshirt freshman who’ll be replacing the ultra-steady Jeff Ballard. For what feels like the 20th year in-a-row, Baylor is rebuilding, and looking up at a very deep Big 12 South. The situation at quarterback is a mess, a real problem in the spread attack, and the running game will try to pick up the pieces after finishing last in the country in 2006. Sophomore LB Joe Pawelek is a bright spot, but Baylor would need ten more players like him to get into the bowl discussion.
Why Baylor might win
The Bears get a break by facing a young quarterback that has unproven receivers and will be playing in his first game at this level. With Pawelek and Nick Moore at linebacker, and Dwain Crawford and Jeremy Williams at safety, Baylor can pay less attention to the pass while focusing on stopping Brown. Despite being a heavy favorite, TCU doesn’t have the offensive experience to run away and hide in this game.
Why TCU might win
The Frog D is every bit as good as advertised. Nine starters are back, including the sensational pass-rush tandem of Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, from a unit that was No. 2 in total defense last year. Expect the Bear passing game to sputter and cough under the intense pressure from the outside. With so much uncertainty at quarterback in Waco, and a non-existent running game, no one should be surprised if TCU hurls a shutout Saturday evening.
Who to Watch
At least for the time being, Brown will be the most important—and exhausted—member of the TCU offense. No longer a part of a committee, he’s got the talent as a runner and receiver to explode this fall, and even be a deep, deep Heisman sleeper if the Frogs keep winning. Even with the focus on the running game, all eyes will be on Dalton. His early development will be one of the keys to the Mountain West race. Everything is in place for TCU to be special, but it’ll all fall apart if Dalton isn’t decent.
What Will Happen
One Big 12 team down, and one to go. With the defense predictably leading the way and creating turnovers, TCU will never be threatened.
Prediction
Texas Christian 30, Baylor 13
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Arkansas State at Texas
Texas gets a tune-up against a good-running Arkansas State team before dealing with TCU. The Longhorns have the overall talent, as always, to be in the mix for the national title, and with a pillow-soft early slate, outside of the date with the Horned Frogs, there will be plenty of time to get the kinks worked out before the Big 12 season. But first, the Horns have to stretch their legs against an ASU team that should be among the best at pounding the ball in the Sun Belt. There's enough talent on the ASU defense to keep this from being brutally ugly for a quarter or two.
Why Arkansas State might win
Don't laugh; ASU might have the best safeties in this game. Tyrell Johnson and Khayyam Burns are All-Sun Belt caliber playmakers, with Johnson possibly the best defender in the conference, while the cornerbacks might grow into the strength of the team. Yeah, it's easy to look great when no one's throwing the ball (NO ONE throws in the Sun Belt), but these guys really can play and they should be just good enough to keep the fantastic Longhorn receiving corps from exploding.
Why Texas might win
ASU has to run to win, and it's not going to be able to run. The O line is undergoing an overhaul, and this Texas front seven, especially up the middle, isn't exactly going to be pushed around. The ASU receiving corps is strong, but the offense isn't geared to get them the ball. If things go as planned, expect a lot of third and longs, and a lot of big plays made by the Texas secondary.
Who to Watch
Over the next month, Texas needs its offensive line to go from decent to dominant. By no means is this a bad line, but it doesn't appear to be the type of line you'd expect at Texas. A steady rotation has to emerge, and depth needs to be developed. This is a perfect game to do a little of both. For ASU, Reggie Arnold is the best of a good running back corps that has to be at least average to keep Texas from winning by 50.
What Will Happen
Texas will take about two drives to heat up, and then it'll be able to call its shot. Arkansas State is a good Sun Belt team that won't be able to move the ball at all if the Longhorn defense is trying.
Prediction
Texas 48, Arkansas State 6
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North Texas at Oklahoma
The last time we saw Oklahoma, Boise State was pulling out every gimmick play ever invented to pull off a miraculous David win over Goliath in the Fiesta Bowl. Now OU might be a bit of a national afterthought considering the loss to the Broncos, the lack of a proven starting quarterback, and the loss of Adrian Peterson to the Minnesota Vikings. Don't shed any tears, this is one of the best teams in America and it'll look to prove it ... next week. Miami comes to Norman in a fun non-conference matchup, but before we can all get on to bigger and better things, OU has to dispose of a North Texas team with a new head coach, Texas high school coaching legend Todd Dodge, and a little more attitude after a few disastrous seasons.
Why North Texas might win
OU could fall for all the trick plays again. The only chance North Texas has of keeping this in the stratosphere is if OU completely falls apart. The Mean Green defense has good experience and a nice linebacking corps that should keep the Sooners from running wild in the first half. If new Sooner quarterback Sam Bradford is struggling, UNT will have to take advantage of every opportunity.
Why Oklahoma might win
Set off the fireworks if North Texas has more than 75 passing yards before the fourth quarter. Jamario Thomas and the running game won't go anywhere thanks to a rebuilding offensive line that'll struggle in the Sun Belt, much less against Oklahoma, while the Sooner secondary will erase the awful UNT receiving corps. The UNT defense doesn't have nearly enough of a pass rush to make Bradford sweat.
Who to Watch
It's not like Oklahoma has had Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees in the program over the last several years. All the Sooner quarterback has to do is be efficient, make the throws that are there, and relax behind a fantastic offensive line. Bradford was a scout team star last year and should be more than just a caretaker for the offense, and in time, he could grow into the face of the program if he's allowed time to work through his mistakes. OU can beat North Texas without throwing a pass, but it'll need to bomb away a bit to see what it has in its new starter.
What Will Happen
OU might be playing North Texas, but it'll be trying to beat Boise State in the first half. Expect a lot of pent up frustration from that Fiesta Bowl to come out against a ridiculously overmatched Mean Green team that won't get a chance to see what its new offense can really do until the fourth quarter.
Prediction
Oklahoma 52, North Texas 7
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Central Michigan at Kansas
The last time Kansas played a MAC team, it got tagged in a stunning double-overtime loss to Toledo. Now the Jayhawks have an even tougher task against the defending MAC champion with enough talent to not only repeat, but to give KU a nightmare of an opener. CMU new head coach Butch Jones has a loaded team with 14 starters back including the league's best group of skill players. If Kansas can get by the opener, and doesn't get tripped up again by Toledo, it'll almost certainly be 4-0 going into the Big 12 opener at Kansas State. CMU has to face Toledo next week, while anything less than a great performance this week will be a big disappointment for the MAC, as well as the Chippewas.
Why Central Michigan might win
Is the KU pass defense going to be any better? The Jayhawks allowed way too many yards and only gets a few starters back in the back seven. CMU has the receivers to test out 2006's worst pass defense from the start, while the speedy running combination of Ontario Sneed and Justin Hoskins should be effective. Basically, QB Dan LeFevour and the boys should make this a shootout.
Why Kansas might win
Central Michigan's defense wasn't anything special last year, and even though it'll be decent at times throughout this year, it'll bend and bend and bend some more. If the KU offense can click right away, which isn't a given considering all the turmoil in the depth chart up until this week, it should be able to put up points and yards in bunches. Defensively, the small, quick KU linebacking corps should be able to generate decent pressure into the CMU backfield.
Who to Watch
Is the KU backfield finally settled? The much-publicized quarterback battle between Todd Reesing and Kerry Meier was won by Reesing, but head coach Mark Mangino has never been afraid to switch around his quarterbacks if the results aren't there. Meier has all the skills, but has been mistake-prone throughout his career. Reesing isn't big, but he can run and has a decent arm. Also getting a starting nod will be sophomore Jake Sharp as the team's tailback. He's a speedster who could potentially crank out home runs, but the power will come from Brandon McAnderson, the starting fullback who was also in the hunt for the starting tailback job.
What Will Happen
Don't expect much in the way of defense. Central Michigan will get just enough from its veteran D, especially up the middle with a big game from the tackles, to pull off the upset. Expect plenty of fireworks, lots of home runs, and momentum swing after momentum swing. This might be a case of the last team with the ball getting the win.
Prediction
Central Michigan 34, Kansas 31
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Montana State at Texas A&M
Montana State is no pushover. The Bobcats are coming off a good year, losing to eventual national champion Appalachian State in the playoffs, but on a national scale, they're known more for being the team that beat Colorado 19-10 in season opener. This is a solid, ranked team that'll need everything in the bag to have any shot of pulling off the shocker, but it has a good run defense and a potentially dangerous passing offense. A&M needs to come out roaring to kick off a light first three weeks of the season before traveling to Miami. Anything less than a blowout will get the Aggie nation grumbling.
Why Montana State might win
The Texas A&M pass defense will be merely average early on, and MSU will be more than happy to bomb away. Jack Rolovich, a former Hawaii Warrior, threw too many picks after taking over late last year after starter Cory Carpenter went down. They can both throw deep and they're both good enough to come up with a scoring drive or two if and when A&M gets up. The Aggies won't be able to relax even if they get out to a big lead.
Why Texas A&M might win
The MSU run defense might have been great last year, but facing the Aggie ground game is a completely different story. The O line appears to be the best yet in the Dennis Franchione era by far, and it'll take eight men in the box to deal with the running tandem of Mike Goodson and Jorvorskie Lane. QB Stephen McGee should be able to crank out short to midrange passes to his heart's content.
Who to Watch
Everything appears to be in place for A&M to have a big year, but there will be several close games and sophomore Matt Szymanski has to produce. Layne Neumann was a rock-solid kicker, while Szymanski waited his turn despite being a highly touted recruit and missing several attempts early on last year. The coaching staff wants to see what the kicking game can do and if it can be relied on. There won't pressure situation in this game that Szymanski will have to deal with later on in the year, so if he misses, the panic sirens will go off.
What Will Happen
The Aggie ground game will keep the time of possession in its favor for a workmanlike, unspectacular win. Montana State will come up with a few big passes to get everyone squirming, but A&M will always respond.
Prediction
Texas A&M 27, Montana State 14
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Texas Tech at Southern Methodist
The game of the week in Conference USA has the potential to be an old-fashioned shootout with major ramifications for the Mustangs. Long-suffering SMU has been building to this point, where a post-season game is a realistic goal for the first time in almost a quarter century, and beating a team like Texas Tech is more than just a hopeful possibility. The Mustangs finally have a franchise quarterback to rally around in sophomore Justin Willis and 16 returning starters that are itching to make history. An upset of Texas Tech would be a post-death penalty milestone, while providing a springboard for the rest of the season. The sky isn’t falling in Lubbock, but for the first time in the Mike Leach era, the Red Raiders will be doing some rebuilding. Oh, Tech will be Tech in the passing game, especially with QB Graham Harrell back, but with so many holes to plug on both sides of the ball, a winning season is not the lock it’s been the last few years.
Why Texas Tech might win
This is Texas Tech, so prolific passing numbers are the norm regardless of the personnel. The Red Raiders are going to be especially prolific through the air against a Mustang defense that has three gaping holes on the defensive line and loads of youth in the secondary. Without any pressure, Harrell will pick apart the SMU D for 400 yards, turning receivers Danny Amendola and Michael Crabtree into two of the opening weekend’s statistical stars.
Why Southern Methodist might win
Heading into the season, the biggest concern for Texas Tech is a front seven that was gutted by graduations and is dangerously short on depth and experience. Led by Ben Poynter and Caleb Peveto, SMU has a veteran line that’ll give Willis time to do damage on underneath routes and open holes for bruising RB DeMyron Martin. The Red Raiders are going to score, but the Mustangs know they can keep pace on offense as long as all the parts are working. Defensively, they have to hope Harrell has one of his bounce-pass games, like he had at times last year when the offense simply didn’t work. With a slew of new receivers, it’s possible.
Who to Watch
Willis was outstanding as a freshman despite getting no help from the running game. If Martin can revert back to his 2005 form when he rushed for 854 yards, the Mustang offense will be downright lethal. At 6-2 and 230 pounds, he’s healthy, focused, and determined to punish that suspect interior of the Red Raider defense. For Tech, top back Shannon Woods finally appears to be out of the doghouse having worked his way back into the good graces of the coaching staff. While he’s not back as the full-time starter quite yet, he’s no longer fourth string like he was coming out of spring ball. Sophomore Kobey Lewis will get plenty of work.
What Will Happen
If you're SMU, now is the time to catch a Texas Tech program that's clearly in transition with new starters everywhere. In November, the outcome would be different, but in the opener, the Mustangs will get some late-game heroics from Willis and a defining upset win to start the 2007 season.
Prediction
Southern Methodist 37, Texas Tech 35
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Crit40
Posts:2483
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| 08/28/2007 10:45 AM |
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| Holy crap! They actually pick a winner in these "predictions". Way to step it up collegefootballnews.com. |
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Counting the Herd one hoof at a time. |
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brianf
Posts:29
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| 08/28/2007 11:06 AM |
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| a lot of interesting takes on these games and some good, educated insights (maybe logan could learn from reading this). All in all, College Football is HERE !!!! |
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Logan
Posts:2525
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| 08/28/2007 11:35 AM |
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| maybe brian could learn something by going back to 2nd grade, like how to read and comprehend. the only predictions i really question are smu beating tech and the spread between nebraska and nevada. the spread could hold if nevada is really having the qb problems most seem to think they are. however, it could be a scam put on by their head coach to make people think they have a weakness there. |
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dwight, refuting reality one post at a time. |
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egami
Posts:5397
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| 08/28/2007 12:37 PM |
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Posted By Crit40 on 08/28/2007 10:45 AM
Holy crap! They actually pick a winner in these "predictions". Way to step it up collegefootballnews.com.
Um, they did that last year...
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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Crit40
Posts:2483
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| 08/28/2007 4:40 PM |
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Posted By egami on 08/28/2007 12:37 PM Posted By Crit40 on 08/28/2007 10:45 AM
Holy crap! They actually pick a winner in these "predictions". Way to step it up collegefootballnews.com. Um, they did that last year...
Um, really?
Midge, I'm beginning to think you have a man-crush on me.
Seriously, I'm married and very happy. No more stalking please.
BTW - Sarcasm....catch it! |
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Counting the Herd one hoof at a time. |
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vranged
Posts:2813
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| 08/28/2007 4:54 PM |
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In the spirit of putting all the cattiness behind us, I suggest everyone picks the Big XII winners/losers every week (no spread) to see who is the best prognosticator. We can post our predictions after wscsuperfan posts his weekly Big XII preview (thanks, wsc -- you are a mountain of informative links/info). It'll just be for fun.
My picks:
GA over OK St.
Auburn over KState
Mizzou over Illinois
Kent St. over IA State
Colorado over Colorado State
Nebraska over Nevada
Baylor over TCU
Kansas over Central Michigan
A&M over Montana State
Tex Tech over SMU
Texas over Arkansas State
Oklahoma over N. Texas
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After acknowledging that he was desperate, Dwight said "people will resort to saying things they know aren't true when they are desperate." That about sums it up! |
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IrememberDukester
Posts:2404
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| 08/28/2007 5:37 PM |
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Dukester Sez,
GA over OK St.
Auburn over KState
Mizzou over Illinois
IA St. over Kent State
Colorado over Colorado State
Nebraska over Nevada
TCU over Baylor
Kansas over Central Michigan
A&M over Montana State
Tex Tech over SMU
Texas over Arkansas State
Oklahoma over N. Texas
However, I wouldn't be surprised if Okie St pulled the upset!
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Blackshirt
Posts:586
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| 08/28/2007 5:55 PM |
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Georigia over OK St.
Auburn over KState
Mizzou over Illinois
Iowa State over Kent State
Colorado State over Colorado
Nebraska over Nevada
TCU over Baylor
Kansas over Central Michigan
Texas A&M over Montana State
Texas Tech over SMU
Texas over Arkansas State
Oklahoma over North Texas State |
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"Perhaps the worst thing that can happen is to reach into the refrigerator and come out with something that you cannot identify at all. You literally do not know what it is. Could be meat, could be cake. Usually, at a time like that, I'll bluff. "Honey, is this good?" "Well, what is it?" "I don't know. I've never seen anything like it. It looks like...meatcake!" "Well, smell it." (snort, sniff) "It has absolutely no smell whatsoever!" "It's good! Put it back! Somebody is saving it. It'll turn up in something." Thats what frightens me. That someone will consider it a challenge and use it just because it's in there." -- George Carlin |
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Crit40
Posts:2483
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| 08/28/2007 5:58 PM |
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Georigia over OK St.
Auburn over KState
Mizzou over Illinois
Iowa State over Kent State
Colorado over Colorado State
Nebraska over Nevada
TCU over Baylor
Kansas over Central Michigan
Texas A&M over Montana State
Texas Tech over SMU
Texas over Arkansas State
Oklahoma over North Texas State
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Counting the Herd one hoof at a time. |
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Bugeater
Posts:971
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| 08/28/2007 11:54 PM |
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Meh, other than the first game and CU-CSU, these are too easy.
Winners:
OK St
Auburn
Mizzou
Ia St
Col
Neb
TCU
Ks
aTm
Tx Tch
Tx
Ok |
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egami
Posts:5397
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| 08/29/2007 10:12 AM |
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Posted By Crit40 on 08/28/2007 4:40 PM Posted By egami on 08/28/2007 12:37 PM Posted By Crit40 on 08/28/2007 10:45 AM
Holy crap! They actually pick a winner in these "predictions". Way to step it up collegefootballnews.com. Um, they did that last year... Um, really? Midge, I'm beginning to think you have a man-crush on me. Seriously, I'm married and very happy. No more stalking please. BTW - Sarcasm....catch it!
Seriously, Crit, get over it...I was just replying. There was no stalking or ill-intent meant.
It may have been sarcasm, it may not have. I was merely posting the fact that they did that last year. |
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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egami
Posts:5397
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| 08/29/2007 10:13 AM |
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Posted By Bugeater on 08/28/2007 11:54 PM
Meh, other than the first game and CU-CSU, these are too easy.
Winners:
OK St
Auburn
Mizzou
Ia St
Col
Neb
TCU
Ks
aTm
Tx Tch
Tx
Ok
Ditto.
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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wscsuperfan
Posts:230
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| 08/29/2007 10:46 AM |
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Oklahoma State will beat Georgia, further enhancing the reputation of the Big 12 South
Auburn will beat K-State, though not as badly as one might believe. Both teams need to find offense. The Wildcats may even get a moral victory in hostile SEC country.
Missouri will beat Illinois, and I think this game could reach near-blowout status. Mizzou will be too good.
Iowa State will beat Kent State.....I struggled to pick a winner here, but with the game in Ames and it being Chizik's first game, the crowd will be electric, that will be enough for a close, hard-fought win.
Colorado will beat Colorado State and will look pretty solid in doing so. Colorado may not be leaps and bounds better than last year, but they will be more improved than the Rams.
Nebraska will beat Nevada and will look like a very solid team in doing-so. Things will be kept pretty vanilla as to not show too-much to Wake and SC down the road.
Texas Christian will destroy Baylor. Their defense will be lights out, and Baylor is.........well, Baylor.
Kansas will beat Central Michigan, the Jayhawks are going to surprise some teams this year.
Texas A&M will run all over Montana State.....I don't care that this I-AA team beat CU last year, this is Division I football!
Texas Tech will beat SMU.....SMU is on the rise, but not at the level yet to beat a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team. Tech will be better by the end of the year than many think they will be.
Texas coasts by Arkansas State in what is little more than an exhibition in preparation for the Horned Frogs the following week.
Oklahoma will beat North Texas badly in Norman as the talent gap is too far. Interesting to see how the QB play shakes out for the Sooners. |
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Screamincheetahwillie
Posts:100
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| 08/29/2007 9:20 PM |
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SCW's picks:
Upset minded Okie State over Georgia in OT.
Auburn runs away in the 4th quarter over Kansas State after 3 quarters of a close game.
Missouri shellshocks Illinois in Boom, Boom...Out Go The Lights action.
Iowa State in a nailbiter over Kent State.
Colorado by 10 over Colorado State, CU and CSU fans riot in an ugly scene throughout the whole game.
Nebraska by 21 over Nevada, although most of the lopsidedness comes in the second half.
TCU over Baylor, but Baylor makes a good showing for about 2 1/2 quarters but just isn't quite ready for the next level yet.
Kansas over Central Michigan by 15. Mangina sends his offensive coordinator to the closest Mickey Dee's to get him a victory Happy Meal or two or three.
Texas A&M over Montana State in a blowout. No Buffalo tying going on in this game.
Texas Tech over SMU bigtime.
Texas over Arkansas State in a game in which the starters sit after the 1st quarter and not risking injuries.
Oklahoma over North Texas in a major ass-kicking to show that David will not beat Goliath 2 games in a row.
2007's Championship Predictions: All of my favorite teams: Huskers, Rams, Avalanche, Suns, and Red Sox. Hey, can't a guy dream???
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vranged
Posts:2813
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| 08/30/2007 8:44 AM |
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Seriously, Crit, get over it...I was just replying. There was no stalking or ill-intent meant.
It may have been sarcasm, it may not have. I was merely posting the fact that they did that last year.
Too funny. I've turned egami into a miserable, PMS-having, little b.itch. If I would have known my deconstruction of him would have had this impact, I wouldn't have done it.
Crit said he was kidding, yet you still took it personally. That wouldn't have happened 2 weeks ago -- before I exposed you for the fool you are.
It's good to be right.
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After acknowledging that he was desperate, Dwight said "people will resort to saying things they know aren't true when they are desperate." That about sums it up! |
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DMan
Posts:0
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| 08/30/2007 8:54 AM |
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| Vranged, the man in the mirror is looking more and more like a very sick man. Get a grip bro! We're not kids anymore. Progress is in the pudding....look at me? Do you see me inviting guys to 84th and Harrison anymore? No because I've come to realize things. Look inside. You are smarter than this. |
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vranged
Posts:2813
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| 08/30/2007 9:42 AM |
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Well, you gotta admit, egami has gone somewhat loco the last week or so.
And if the man you see in the mirror is looking very sick, my advice is to see a doctor. Or take some Pepto -- pink is a shade of red, so just pretend it's Kool Aid. |
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After acknowledging that he was desperate, Dwight said "people will resort to saying things they know aren't true when they are desperate." That about sums it up! |
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egami
Posts:5397
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| 08/30/2007 10:09 AM |
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It's really not worth the effort, Dman.
If there is one person on this board that is obsessed with measuring their imaginary financial e-penis to put people down, getting in the last word, resorting to name-calling in practically every thread to compensate for lack of logic and intellectual honesty...it's vranged.
I am just glad they let the copy boy use the internet between coffee refills. |
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Posted By Omahan on 11/04/2008 2:24 PM
I've worked very hard to become your friend egami. |
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vranged
Posts:2813
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| 08/30/2007 11:54 AM |
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That's not the first time you've referenced my penis, egami. Maybe this deconstruction of you has revealed some other qualities you didn't know about yourself. I know you look up to me, but it's not going that far, sport.
At least I brought Dman and egami together, after some bitter exchanges between the two. Look at them pat each other on the back, after each getting intellectually torn to shreds. Birds of a feather flock together.
Off to get the boss some coffee.....oh wait, I'm the boss. Nevermind. Since you're my b1tch, egami, maybe I'll have you get it. |
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After acknowledging that he was desperate, Dwight said "people will resort to saying things they know aren't true when they are desperate." That about sums it up! |
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